Every two weeks, CHANDLER ASSET PROTECTION LTD reviews the main indexes in equities, currencies and commodities through 58 different charts.
A worthwhile guide to get a feel for the next move and / or the important turning points.
EQUITIES
Last week’s close showed an array of SELL signals across the board. Almost every equity market ended the 2019 rebound, with some marking the top right at their moving averages. Only Australia and New Zealand are showing positive configurations.
The bear phase we expected for February has started. The question is whether it will mark a higher low or whether it will go through December’s low and complete the cyclical bear market. We privilege the former.
China’s equity markets are disconnected and are taking a life of their won.
MXWO – MSCI World Equity Index
SELL
MXEF – MSCI Emerging Markest Index
SELL
MXAP – MSCI Asia Pacific All Country Index
SELL
Americas
USA – Dow Jones Industrial Index
HOLD
Once again, the US market is lagging behind the rest and the Reversal has not been completed yet on the Dow Jones which climbed back above its two moving averages. The index is Losing momentum and is short term overbought.
USA – Standard & Poor’s 500
SELL
The SP500 is less positive than the Dow Jones and failed to pass the short term moving average. A re-test of the December lows is a high probability.
USA – Nasdaq Index
SELL
Canada – Toronto Stock Exchange
SELL
Mexico – MEXBOL Index
SELL
Brazil – IBOV Index
REDUCE
Europe
European stocks are displaying clearly negative configurations. Cash is King in Europe
Europe – EUROSTOXX 50 Index
SELL
Germany – DAX30 Index
SELL
Switzerland – SMI Index
SELL
UK – FT 100 Index
SELL
France – CAC 40 Index SELL
Spain – IBEX 35 Index
HOLD
Italy – FTSE MIB 30 Index
SELL
Turkey – DJ Titans 20
SELL
Russia – IMOEX Index
SELL
Middle East
UAE – DFMGI Index
BUY
UAE – Abu Dhabi General Index
SELL
Saudi Arabia – TADAWUL Index
HOLD
Asia
Australia – ASX Index
BUY
Australia was one of the best performing markets last week and broke above its moving averages in one sharp move up as the Australian Dollar was weakening. It may be a sign of things to come for the other markets or just a continuation of the long-term disconnect of the South Pacific Nations.
New Zealand – NZ 50 Index
BUY
Japan – Nikkei 225 Index
SELL
Japan – Topix Index
SELL
CHINA – TAIWAN
China and Taiwan were closed all week for the Chinese New Year
Hong Kong – HSI
HOLD
Singapore – STI Index
HOLD
Korea – KOSPI Index SELL
Indonesia – JCI Index
SELL
Malaysia – KLCI Index
SELL
Thailand – SET Index
SELL
The Philippines – PCOMP Index
SELL
Vietnam – VNI Index
SELL
India – SENSEX Index
HOLD
CURRENCIES
The US dollar made an important reversal last week and is pointing to more strength contrary to our expectations. We are tightening our stop losses on our EURO long call and may reverse our positions.
The Russian Ruble was buoyed by Moody’s Investors Service decision on 8th February 2019 to upgrade Russia’s sovereign credit rating to ‘Baa3’ from ‘Ba1’. The agency justified the move citing the positive impact of policies enacted in recent years which have boosted the country’s public finance and strengthened its economy against external shock including fresh sanctions. Standard & Poor’s credit rating for Russia stands at BBB- with stable outlook. Fitch’s credit rating for Russia was last reported at BBB- with positive outlook.
DXY – US dollar Index
BUY
EUR – Euro
Watch
JPY – Japanese Yen
Neutral
CNY – Chinese Yuan
BUY
CAD – Canadian Dollar
SELL
AUD – Australian Dollar
Watch
GBP – British Pound
BUY
TRY – Turkish Lira
BUY
RUB – Russian Ruble
BUY
Cryptocurrencies
XBTUSD – Bitcoins
As always, traders are trying to prevent Bitcoins to fall through major supports. But every time the attempt fails. We stay short
COMMODITIES
Oil’s countertrend rally is ending and last week marked the first reversal since December’s bottom. There could be another bout of strength towards 58 before we short again.
Gold and Silver are making a pause in what is otherwise a well-established uptrend.
CL1 – CRUDE OIL
SELL on Strength
XAU – Gold
STAY LONG
XAG – Silver
Hold
HG1 – Copper Watch
XPD – Palladium SELL with a Stop Loss
Palladium tried to negate its negative configuration last week. It is still highly overbought and the top that was made a few weeks ago is still very much in place. We remain on the bearish side with a tight stop-loss though.
XPT – Platinum Accumulate with Stop Loss
Platinum fell last week and is testing once again the 800 support level. The bottoming out process is still very much in place and only a significant break below the 2018 lows would negate the constructive outlook.
SB1 – Sugar Accumulate
KC1 – Coffee Accumulate
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