Currencies

DXY – US Dollar Index

The US dollar is in a topping out process and last week’s weakness just confirmed the top.  Weaker economic momentum and large long positions will take it lower towards 94.90 and then 93.5. SELL

EUR – EURO

The EUR should be the major beneficiary of US dollar weakness with a target at 1.18 in the coming phase . BUY

JPY – Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen was bid up last week as fear gripped the equity markets.
We don’t see much upside for the Japanese Yen though. HOLD

CNY – Chinese Yuan

The big story last week was the major turn in the CNY and the HKD as the US – Chinese Trade war was supposed to ease. The arrest of Hua Wei’s CFO Meng in Vancouver threw a lid on the advance though.  STRONG BUY

AUD – Australian Dollar

The AUD corrected the first part of its advance against the US dollar and is now ready to power ahead again. BUY

TRY – Turkish Lira

The Turkish Central Bank is doing a good job at maintaining the stability of the currency and there should more room for advances towards 5. HOLD

RUB – Russian Ruble

The Ruble is hovering around between fluctuating oil prices and higher interest rates.  We remain NEUTRAL

Commodities

CL1 – Crude Oil

Crude paused last week as OPEC agreed on a a 1.5 mb/d cut in supply. However, the trend is down. After a lid rebound, the targets will be 40 and then 25. SELL

XAU – Gold

Gold had a very significant move last week confirming the development of a strong bull phase that we see rolling into 2019. BUY

XAG – Silver

Silver is finally shaking its lethargy and rebounding strongly form its very long term support.  STRONG BUY

HG1 – Copper

Copper has now retraced 38 % of its 2015 – 2018 bull phase. It is now sitting on its two moving averages and a new BUY signal must be triggered to invest again.  HOLD

XPD – Palladium

Palladium just recorded a major top and it is overextended. SELL SHORT 

XPT – Platinum

EQUITIES

MXWO – MSCI WORLD INDEX

Last week turned out to be ugly and negated the positive signal delivered the week before.  The only two positives are the fact that the index is holding above its previous low and the fact that it is highly oversold. 
A quick rebound is needed next week.

MXEF – MSCI Emerging Markets Index

The technical picture of the Emerging markets Index is much better than the one of the world index. Last week’s hanging hammer does not yet constitute a threat and the BUY signal recorded on the MACDs is confirmed. 
BUY

MXAP – MSCI Asia Pacific Index

There again the technical configuration is much more supportive and the downside, if any, should be limited.  BUY

Americas

USA – Dow Jones Industrial Index

Friday was indeed an ugly close negating the positive signal sent last week. However, The Dow Jones Industrial Index is holding on a strong support level made of the lows of 2018.   Failure to hold that level would be outright Bearish. AVOID

USA – Standard & Poors 500 Index

The SP500 closed above the key 2631 level, on a strong support and the Long term Moving average.  The index is heavily oversold.  Failure to hold that support would become extremely bearish.  AVOID

USA – Nasdaq Index

There again, the configuration is ugly but the Nasdaq Index is still holding above a key support made of the 2018 lows and its long term moving average. Failure to hold this level would be extremely bearish. AVOID

Canada  –   TSX Index

Canadian stocks look extremely ugly and a break of the 14’900 level would send them slumping.  AVOID

Brazil  –   IBOV Index

Brazil seems to be immune to the general feeling of panic in global equities.
A minor top may have been recorded though.  HOLD

Asia

China  –  CSI 300 Index

China’s markets remained calmed last week with much less volatility than their Us counterparts. In fact they are showing a positive divergence in momentum that means that they will lead the next bull phase The downside is limited.  BUY

China –  Shanghai Composite Index

Limited downside and relative outperformance.  BUY

China –  FT 50 China Index

Extended basing process and limited downside. BUY

Hong Kong – HSCEI Index

Last week reversed the break out with our negating it. BUY

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index

Again, last week reversed the break out without negating it. The BUY signal delivered by the MACDs was confirmed.  BUY

Japan – Nikkei 225 index

Last week’s sharp close just negated the positive tone of the previous week without changing the global picture which is neutral for now. HOLD

Japan – TOPIX Index

The Topic Index is still holding on the long term support within the down triangle. A big move up or down should happen soon.

Japan – JASDAQ Index

Japanese small stocks are holding well even if last week’s move negated the attempted break out above the moving average. IT is highly oversold. ACCUMULATE

India – SENSEX Index

India was clearly not feeling concerned with the volatility of the Western equity markets. BUY

Indonesia  –  JCI Index

Indonesian stocks performed positively last week and the technical configuration is Bullish.  BUY

Europe

Europe  –  Eurostoxx 50

European stocks were hammered last week but we are reaching a significant BUY area at these levels even if additional volatility cannot be excluded.   ACCUMULATE

Germany – DAX 30 Index

German stocks are by far the ugliest of the lot with a significant SELL signal delivered last week. The inability to hold the 12’000 level two weeks ago and above the 2011 uptrend last week are bad omens following the rounding top that was built over 2017 and 2018. SELL

France – CAC 40 Index

The French equity market MUST hold the 2011 uptrend, otherwise the entire picture becomes extremely bearish as the 2017 – 2018 tentative break above the upper boundary of the descending triangle is negated. HOLD

UK – FT 100 Index

Extremely oversold and reaching an accumulation zone. The December 11th vote on BREXIT may provide the catalyst for a strong rebound. ACCUMULATE

Italy – FTSE MIB 30 Index

Last week’s sharp fall in Italian equities is part of a complex basing process and some more downside may not be excluded, but we are reaching accumulation levels.   ACCUMULATE

Spain – IBEX 35 Index

Spain must hold above the 2011 uptrend but even if it did not, the downside would be limited.  ACCUMULATE

Greece – Athens Stock Exchange Index

Contrary to all European markets and most international markets, Greek stocks performed positively last week after having rebounded on the very long term 600 support.  The Greek economy is back on a solid growth footing and GREECE is an excellent recovery candidate.

Middle East

Saudi Arabia – TADAWUL Index

A positive performance last week as OPEC agreed to Cuts in Oil production. The technical picture is Neutral to positive. ACCUMULATE

Dubai – DFMG Index

The Dubai stock market is testing its long term support and should rebound from there.  ACCUMULATE